Pyotr Shebalin – Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, specializing in geophysics, geophysical methods of mineral exploration. He investigated the phenomenon of increasing seismicity interaction range before large earthquakes. Using the RTP forecast algorithm he developed, a number of strong earthquakes were predicted in advance in the Kuril Islands, Japan, California and Italy. Developed a method for constructing dynamic seismic hazard assessments taking into account earthquake precursors and any other factors presented in digital form. Created a method for assessing the risk of strong aftershocks. He proposed a model for the occurrence of aftershocks, explaining Omori’s law and deviations from it. He established the exponential law of earthquake productivity, which significantly changes the existing ideas about seismic processes. Investigated the connections between statistical parameters of seismicity and physical parameters of the environment, in particular, the parameters of Omori’s law for aftershocks with stress; proposed a method for identifying potential areas of maximum displacement during large earthquakes in subduction zones.
Research interests: geophysics, seismology, computational geophysics, seismic hazard, earthquake forecast.
Session
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System Analysis of Seismic Hazard
The section will be devoted to the implementation of systems analysis tools in the tasks of seismic hazard assessment (including from aftershocks), earthquake forecasting, mapping seismic regime parameters, potential seismogenic structures and SSZ, creating representative earthquake catalogs, processing and interpretation of seismological data, etc. Welcome reports on system analysis and integration of methods, approaches and assessments of seismic hazard, the use of artificial intelligence tools in problems of seismic zoning and processing of seismological information.